Morocco FX Analytics · Foreign trade
FX demand (imports) versus FX supply (exports). The trade imbalance is the primary source of structural pressure on the dirham.
Coverage ratio
Office des Changes — IMEE · customs basis · cumulative through August 2026.
Annual trend · billions MAD
Deficit as bars · coverage ratio (exports/imports) as line
In 2025, the trade deficit stands at 352.3 bn MAD, up 15.5% year-on-year, with a coverage ratio of 57.2%.
Solid shade = flows with settlement (generates FX demand) · light shade = flows without payment (temporary admission, FX-neutral)
In 2025, CAF imports total 822.3 bn MAD including 177.8 bn in temporary admission with payment. FAB exports reach 470.1 bn MAD including 295.6 bn in TA re-exports.
Origin of FX demand · billions MAD
In 2025, Europe accounts for 54.2% of CAF imports (445.7 bn MAD), followed by Asia (27.4%, 225.4 bn MAD).
The Office des Changes retroactively revises its sectoral breakdowns from one publication to the next (all categories, not just automotive/aerospace). Last-year figures may therefore differ from previously published values. Year-on-year changes are recalculated on the revised base, not on the previously published figure — which avoids artefacts but means that a YoY percentage here may differ from press releases that used the pre-revision base.
January–august 2026 cumulative: imports total 617.5 bn MAD. Finished equipment goods leads (148.7 bn, up 19.3% year-on-year), followed by Finished consumer goods (143.4 bn, up 10.1% year-on-year).
January–august 2026 cumulative: exports total 334.9 bn MAD. Automotive leads (116.2 bn, up 14.5% year-on-year), followed by Agriculture & agrifood (65.1 bn, up 8.3% year-on-year).
What share of the trade deficit is attributable to energy? Formula: |energy balance| ÷ |total deficit|. A high ratio means the trade deficit largely depends on the energy bill — and therefore on world oil/gas prices.
In 2024, energy accounts for 34.1% of the trade deficit (104 out of 305 bn MAD).
In 2025 (provisional), this ratio falls to 29.0%.
The 'Energy & minerals' scope (Office des Changes classification) includes fuels (~90% of the item) and a residual share of minerals. The weight varies with commodity prices: it surged in 2022 (oil shock), then fell back. The ratio is calculated from annual customs data (export − import by sector); provisional years may be revised.
Which sectors deepen the deficit, which offset it? Each bar = sector balance (exports − imports). The sum of all bars equals the net trade deficit (dashed line).
In 2024, Energy & minerals accounts for 34.1% of the trade deficit. 3 sector(s) post a surplus.
The largest surplus goes to Chemicals & pharma (+26.5 bn MAD).
The structure reflects prices and volumes — a sector dominating in a shock year (e.g. energy in 2022) does not imply a structural dependency. Cross-check with the time series below. 'Other' regroups the smallest sectors to keep the chart readable. Bars are sorted by contribution to the deficit (largest negative first).
The trade deficit went from 160 bn MAD in 2020 to 352 bn MAD in 2025 (provisional).
Energy & minerals remains the largest deficit item.
Trade balance by sector = exports − imports (Office des Changes, MAD). The 5 smallest sectors are grouped as 'Other'. The structure is nominal — a price surge (e.g. energy 2022) shows up in the levels, not in the volumes. 'Net deficit' (dashed line) = overall trade balance; if it falls below the largest red bar, other sectors are partially offsetting.
The energy sector trade balance tracks world commodity prices — a price shock deepens the deficit regardless of import volumes.
Brent Crude: latest price at 116.8 $/bbl (September 2026). Sectoral balance in 2025: 102.3 bn MAD.
This balance fell 1.6% year-on-year.
The chemicals & pharma trade surplus rises with phosphate prices — a favorable cycle amplifies the net contribution.
Phosphate rock: latest price at 170.0 $/mt (September 2026). Sectoral balance in 2025: 34.3 bn MAD.
This balance rose 29.5% year-on-year.
The food sector trade deficit tracks world commodity prices — a price surge worsens the import bill.
Wheat (US SRW): latest price at 278.6 $/mt (September 2026). Sectoral balance in 2025: 23.1 bn MAD.
This balance rose 26.1% year-on-year.
Read with caution: world prices are monthly (blue curve, latest data point = most recent month available) while trade balances are annual (bars, latest bar = last published year). The visual correlation therefore has a structural lag — the price curve may advance 6 to 12 months beyond the last bar without any 'gap': it simply reflects data that the annual trade balance has not yet captured. Index base 100 compresses the level differences to display both series on a single scale; the absolute levels (double axis) restore the true magnitudes.
In 2025, CAF imports reach 822.3 bn MAD, up 8.0% year-on-year, and FAB exports 470.1 bn MAD, up 3.0% year-on-year.
10-year CAGR: 8.2%.