Morocco FX Analytics · Pressure score

Dirham pressure score

Name: Dirham pressure score
Creator: Morocco FX Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

The trade deficit drains foreign currency; remittances from Moroccans living abroad (MRE), travel receipts and foreign direct investment (FDI) inject it back. The net score, viewed alongside foreign exchange reserves (BAM), measures the residual pressure after the deficit is absorbed.

Source · Office des Changes Unit · billions MAD 2025 provisional

Data scope

Latest common year for all components: 2025. The Office des Changes annual aggregates (FDI, balance of payments) are released with a structural lag of 1–2 years, so the score cannot be “up to date” beyond that year — this is normal, not a data gap.
2025 provisional.

← net support (inflow)net pressure (uncovered deficit) →

Support (MRE · Travel · FDI) vs trade deficit

Stacked inflows (teal) vs deficit (red) · line = net score · billions MAD

Deficit coverage ratio by transfers

(MRE + Travel + FDI) / |deficit| · 100% = equilibrium

Compare to Y-1

Support composition — 2025

Share of each foreign currency inflow

Monthly support flows (YoY change)

MRE + Travel · rolling 12-month change in % · above 0 = growing FX inflows

Support flows (YoY) vs YoY change in EUR/MAD

Exploratory comparison (not a model) · does growth in remittances + travel receipts anticipate the dirham?

The dirham is a managed currency — read this before interpreting the score.

The dirham does not float freely. Bank Al-Maghrib calculates a central rate each day from a 60% euro / 40% dollar basket, and the dirham can only move within a ±5% fluctuation band (widened on March 9, 2020, from ±2.5% before; ±7.5% for banknotes). BAM publishes these bounds daily and intervenes to defend them.
As a result: the EUR/MAD and USD/MAD rate does not react freely to fundamentals. The pressure score measures underlying tension on the FX balance, but does not predict dirham movements. Strong pressure shows up more as consumption of foreign exchange reserves and a rate close to one edge of the band than as visible depreciation.
Reform underway: Morocco is considering loosening the dirham's anchor in 2026 (gradual move away from the basket, inflation targeting), without full floating at this stage.

pressure on the dirhamsupport

MRE and travel receipts

Official reserve assets

Where FX support comes from

Breakdown (structure) of FX support flows. Each breakdown is shown at its latest available vintage (country/sector detail is sometimes released a year behind the score aggregates) and reconciles with the score total for that same year. Provisional vintages are flagged. FDI by sector = gross receipts (inflows), distinct from the net FDI used by the score.

Each breakdown is shown at its latest available year (indicated in the title); * = provisional. When the country-level detail does not yet exactly match the revised aggregate (gap < 3%), a note flags it — the reference total remains the monthly aggregate.

Compare to Y-1

MRE by country

MRE remittances · top countries + Other · Bn MAD

FDI by sector

FDI receipts (gross inflows) by recipient sector · Bn MAD

Travel by country

Travel receipts by source market · top countries + Other · Bn MAD

FDI — net flows by country

Net foreign direct investment flows by country · Bn MAD

net inflownet outflow