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Morocco FX Analytics · Pressure score

Dirham pressure score

The trade deficit drains foreign currency; remittances from Moroccans living abroad (MRE), travel receipts and foreign direct investment (FDI) inject it back. The net score, viewed alongside foreign exchange reserves (BAM), measures the residual pressure after the deficit is absorbed.

Source · Office des Changes Unit · billions MAD 2025 provisional
Data scope
← net support (inflow)net pressure (uncovered deficit) →

Support (MRE · Travel · FDI) vs trade deficit

Stacked inflows (teal) vs deficit (red) · line = net score · billions MAD

Summary

In 2025 (provisional), total support reached 291.8 bn MAD against a trade deficit of 352.3 bn, for a net score of −60.4 bn.

Compared to 2024, the score moved from −54.1 to −60.4 bn (−6.3 bn).

Below the average 2015–2025 (−43.9).

Deficit coverage ratio by transfers

(MRE + Travel + FDI) / |deficit| · 100% = equilibrium

Summary

In 2025 (provisional), the support-to-deficit coverage ratio reached 82.8%.

This represents a 0.6-point increase from 2024.

Close to the average 2015–2025 (81.5).

Support composition — 2025

Share of each foreign currency inflow

Summary

In 2025 (provisional), support (291.8 bn MAD) breaks down into travel (47%), MRE (42%) and FDI (11%).

Monthly support flows (YoY change)

MRE + Travel · rolling 12-month change in % · above 0 = growing FX inflows

Summary

In the latest available month (December 2025), the year-on-year support-flow index stands at 29.1%.

Annual change of +27.6 compared to December 2024.

Above the average 2005–2025 (8.6).

Support flows (YoY) vs YoY change in EUR/MAD

Exploratory comparison (not a model) · does growth in remittances + travel receipts anticipate the dirham?

The dirham is a managed currency.
  • BAM calculates a central rate each day from a 60% euro / 40% dollar basket. The dirham can only move within a ±5% band (widened in March 2020, from ±2.5% before). BAM intervenes to defend these bounds.
  • The pressure score measures tension on the FX balance, but does not predict dirham movements. Strong pressure shows up as reserve consumption and a rate close to one edge of the band, not as visible depreciation.
  • The transition toward a more flexible regime (inflation targeting, gradual band widening) has been underway in stages since 2018; the band remains at ±5% to date.
pressure on the dirhamsupport
Summary

In the latest month (December 2025), the support-flow index stands at 29.1%.

Over the same period, the MAD/EUR annual change is 1.84%.

MRE and travel receipts

Summary

In the latest month (December 2025), monthly gross receipts are 10.3 bn MAD for MRE and 12.1 bn for travel.

Year on year, up 12.9%.

Above the average 2004–2025 (5.8).

Official reserve assets

Summary

As of August 13, 2026, official reserve assets stand at 499.6 bn MAD.

Relative to 2025 imports, this represents approximately 7.3 months of coverage.

Year on year, up 22.4%.

Where FX support comes from

Breakdown (structure) of FX support flows. Each breakdown is shown at its latest available vintage (country/sector detail is sometimes released a year behind the score aggregates) and reconciles with the score total for that same year. Provisional vintages are flagged. FDI by sector = gross receipts (inflows), distinct from the net FDI used by the score.

Each breakdown is shown at its latest available year (indicated in the title); * = provisional. When the country-level detail does not yet exactly match the revised aggregate (gap < 3%), a note flags it — the reference total remains the monthly aggregate.

MRE by country

MRE remittances · top countries + Other · Bn MAD

Summary

In 2025, France is the top MRE-sending country (37.3 bn MAD, 31% of total).

Spain accounts for 13% of the total.

FDI by sector

FDI receipts (gross inflows) by recipient sector · Bn MAD

Travel by country

Travel receipts by source market · top countries + Other · Bn MAD

Summary

In 2024, France is the top source of travel receipts (36.9 bn MAD, 32% of total).

Spain accounts for 15% of the total.

FDI — net flows by country

Net foreign direct investment flows by country · Bn MAD

net inflownet outflow
Summary

In 2025 (provisional), France is the top net investor (10.1 bn MAD). Of 15 countries, 6 show negative net flows.