Morocco FX Analytics · Macro outlook

GDP growth and inflation in Morocco

Name: Morocco macroeconomic outlook
Creator: Morocco FX Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Growth, inflation and monetary response: the macroeconomic backdrop to the foreign exchange market, in causal order.

generated on 2026-11-02

Growth & activity

Real GDP growth (year-on-year, by quarter). Non-agricultural GDP isolates the underlying momentum excluding weather-related volatility; agricultural value added shows the magnitude of those shocks.

Quarterly growth in % · year-on-year

growthcontraction

Summary

In Q2 2026, year-on-year GDP growth stood at 4.0% (source: HCP).

Above the average 2015–2026 (3.0).

Non-agricultural GDP in % · year-on-year

growthcontraction

Summary

In Q2 2026, non-agricultural GDP grew 2.0% year-on-year.

Below the average 2015–2026 (3.1).

Agricultural value added in % · year-on-year

agricultural growthcontraction

Summary

In Q2 2026, agricultural value added changed 21.2% year-on-year.

Above the average 2015–2026 (2.7).

Source: HCP — Quarterly national accounts ·

Inflation & prices

The CPI measures the change in consumer prices in urban areas. The annual change (inflation) is the key indicator; the price-level index is shown for reference.

Monthly inflation (MoM)

CPI — month-on-month change in %

price increasedecrease or stable

Summary

In 2024, annual inflation was 0.94% (consumer price index, base 100 : 2017 (546 articles)).

Below the average 2004–2024 (1.88).

Inflation by expenditure category COICOP classification · year-on-year change in %

price increasedecrease or stable

Year Compare to Y-1

Summary

In 2024, the Alcohol & tobacco division recorded the largest increase (5.3%).

The chart above covers the long annual history (HCP through 2024, extended with IMF data thereafter). The chart below switches to monthly frequency (IMF, through ) and addresses a different question: which expenditure categories are driving prices right now?

Monthly inflation breakdown weighted contribution in % · year-on-year

Each bar = sum of contributions from the 12 COICOP categories. A category contributes in proportion to its weight in the consumption basket.

Summary

In September 2026, the monthly CPI change was 1.0%.

The food component changed 1.7% over the month.

Above the average 2007–2026 (0.1).

Contribution = category weight × year-on-year change of the category / 100. Weights: IMF (as transmitted by HCP). The sum of contributions ≈ total inflation. The unit is %, but these are contributions, not the category’s own price change.

COICOP. The international classification breaks the consumption basket into 12 categories. In Morocco, food alone accounts for ~37.5% of the basket (vs. ~15% in Europe) — a food price shock therefore weighs more heavily on Moroccan inflation.

Caution: change ≠ contribution. The chart shows contributions to total inflation, not each category's own price increase. Example: if food shows "1.4%", it means food contributes 1.4 points to the 2.0% total inflation — not that food prices only rose 1.4%. Formula: contribution = weight × change / 100. The sum of contributions ≈ total inflation (black line).

Link to the real exchange rate (see Price competitiveness of the dirham). Moroccan inflation compared to that of partners determines the REER — knowing which categories drive inflation sheds light on Morocco's price competitiveness.

Source: HCP (annual) · IMF SDMX 3.0 (monthly, weights) ·

Monetary response

Monetary policy responds to macro conditions: when inflation accelerates, BAM may raise its policy rate to cool demand; when it decelerates, it may lower it to stimulate credit.

Transmission channel

Growth and inflation drive BAM’s policy rate decision, which transmits to bank lending rates and the cost of credit (money supply, bank credit breakdown). The full history of the policy rate and its effects on M3 and credit are on the dedicated page:

→ See Money & credit (policy rate, M3, bank credit)

Source: BAM — Monetary policy decisions ·