Morocco FX Analytics · Macro outlook

Macroeconomic overview

Name: Morocco macroeconomic outlook
Creator: Morocco FX Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Growth, inflation and monetary response: the macroeconomic backdrop to the foreign exchange market, in causal order.

generated on 2026-08-12

Growth & activity

Real GDP growth (year-on-year, by quarter). Non-agricultural GDP isolates the underlying momentum excluding weather-related volatility; agricultural value added shows the magnitude of those shocks.

Quarterly growth in % · year-on-year

growthcontraction

Non-agricultural GDP in % · year-on-year

growthcontraction

Agricultural value added in % · year-on-year

agricultural growthcontraction

Source: HCP — Quarterly national accounts ·

Inflation & prices

The CPI measures the change in consumer prices in urban areas. The annual change (inflation) is the key indicator; the price-level index is shown for reference.

Monthly inflation (MoM)

CPI — month-on-month change in %

price increasedecrease or stable

Inflation by expenditure category COICOP classification · year-on-year change in %

price increasedecrease or stable

Year Compare to Y-1

The chart above covers the long annual history (HCP through 2024, extended with IMF data thereafter). The chart below switches to monthly frequency (IMF, through ) and addresses a different question: which expenditure categories are driving prices right now?

Monthly inflation breakdown weighted contribution in % · year-on-year

Each bar = sum of contributions from the 12 COICOP categories. A category contributes in proportion to its weight in the consumption basket.

Contribution = category weight × year-on-year change of the category / 100. Weights: IMF (as transmitted by HCP). The sum of contributions ≈ total inflation. The unit is %, but these are contributions, not the category’s own price change.

What is a COICOP division? The international Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose breaks the consumption basket into 12 categories. In Morocco, food alone accounts for ~37.5% of the basket — far more than in European countries (~15%). This structure explains why a food price shock affects Moroccan inflation more heavily.

Caution: change ≠ contribution. The chart unit is %, but these are contributions to total inflation, not each category’s own price increase. Example: if food shows \"1.4%\", it means food contributes 1.4 percentage points to the 2.0% total inflation — not that food prices rose by only 1.4%. They actually rose by about 3.7%, but weighted by food’s ~37.5% share of the basket, the contribution is only 1.4 points. A category can surge 20% without weighing much if it represents only 1.5% of the basket (as with alcohol & tobacco). Formula: contribution = weight × change / 100. The sum of contributions ≈ total inflation (black line).

Link to the real exchange rate (p15). Moroccan inflation compared to that of trading partners determines the real effective exchange rate (REER). Knowing which categories drive inflation therefore also sheds light on Morocco’s price competitiveness.

Source: HCP (annual) · IMF SDMX 3.0 (monthly, weights) ·

Monetary response

Monetary policy responds to macro conditions: when inflation accelerates, BAM may raise its policy rate to cool demand; when it decelerates, it may lower it to stimulate credit.

Transmission channel

Growth and inflation drive BAM’s policy rate decision, which transmits to bank lending rates and the cost of credit (money supply, bank credit breakdown). The full history of the policy rate and its effects on M3 and credit are on the dedicated page:

→ See Money & credit (policy rate, M3, bank credit)

Source: BAM — Monetary policy decisions ·